By Stijn Mitzer and Joost Oliemans

Iran's drone success sets the stage for an expansion of its sphere of influence as the number of countries where Iranian UAVs operate is growing. This not only includes a vast number of non-state actors such as Hizbullah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq, but also countries like Ethiopia (which began to operate its Mohajer-6 UCAVs in late 2021 after some initial teething issues), Russia and Tajikistan. It seems like the number of state actors operating Iranian UAVs is only set to increase in the future, while non-state actors like the Houthis will continue to receive new Iranian drone designs as the country's UAV designs are rapidly evolving despite the implementation of foreign sanctions specifically targeting Iran's drone industry and its exports abroad.

 

 

The use of Iranian-designed loitering munitions by Russia has received a large share of international media attention. Though they are a menace to Ukraine's civilian infrastructure, Russia has so far largely refrained from using them against Ukrainian military targets. A more serious development to Ukraine's Armed Forces comes in the form of the indigenously-designed Kub and Lancet-3(M) loitering munitions that Russia has increasingly been deploying to strike Ukrainian artillery, radars and surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems out of reach from Russia's ground-based assets.

The Islamic Republic of Iran was one of the first countries in the world to operationally deploy unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs) during the Iran-Iraq War of 1980 to 1988. Consisting of radio-controlled Mohajer-1s armed with up to six RPG-7, Iran's drone arsenal has since expanded to include copies of the U.S. RQ-170 Sentinel, PGM-toting (stealth) UCAVs and highly accurate loitering muntions. These types set the stage for an increasingly effective replication of legacy aerial assets, a fact that has not gone unnoticed by an increasing number of customers for Iranian drone designs.

Turkmenistan is a large recipient of Israeli arms and equipment, so far including weaponry like the TAR-21 assault rifle and several types of infantry mobility vehicles (IMVs). Arguably lesser known is Turkmenistan's inventory of Israeli-produced unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). This until 2021 consisted of familiar types like the Elbit Skylark and Aeronautics Defense Orbiter 2B, both solely used for reconnaissance missions. These were acquired in the early-2010s, presenting Turkmenistan's first UAVs that were not target drones inherited from the Soviet Union.

 

Tensions have increased between Iran and Azerbaijan over road tax imposed on Iranian truck drivers that want to enter Armenia through Azerbaijan, over Azerbaijani ties to Israel and plans for a corridor linking Azerbaijan's Nakhchivan exclave with mainland Azerbaijan. The latter's occurence could see Tehran lose its connection to Armenia altogether, hindering its access to the regional market. While current tensions between Tehran and Baku have so far been confined to diplomatic tensions and military exercises along their respective borders, some fear that mounting tensions between the two countries could one day escalate into an all-out regional conflict.

By Stijn Mitzer and Joost Oliemans 

The casual reader may be forgiven for thinking that Armenia's armed forces operate solely Soviet-legacy weaponry inherited from the USSR, or armament received from Russia in recent years. In reality, operating alongside familiar types such as the T-72 MBT, BM-21 MRL and 9K33 Osa SAM are several types of equipment acquired from more surprising sources. This includes Sako TRG-42 sniper rifles bought from Finland, Swathi artillery-locating radars acquired from India and also 273mm WM-80 multiple rocket launchers (MRLs) sourced from China.