Sunday, 27 September 2020

The Fight For Nagorno-Karabakh: Documenting Losses on The Sides Of Armenia and Azerbaijan


By Stijn Mitzer in collaboration with Jakub Janovsky, Dan, and COIN
 
Armed clashes which commenced early in the morning of the 27th of September 2020 over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh have so far caused considerable human and materiel losses on both sides. The renewed clashes are an extension of the three decades long Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, and at present the short-term implications can only be guessed at. While solid information regarding materiel losses is scarce, rumours fly wildly – and unconfirmed and false reports are readily repeated for propaganda purposes. This article will attempt to break down all confirmed material losses by carefully studying the footage made available by both warring parties.


The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is an ethnical and territorial conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh and seven surrounding districts, which are controlled by the self-declared Republic of Artsakh, but are internationally recognized as belonging to Azerbaijan. The status of Nagorno-Karabakh has been disputed since 1918, when Armenia and Azerbaijan declared independence from the Russian Empire. In the early 1920s, the predominantly Armenian-populated region of Nagorno-Karabakh became an autonomous oblast within the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic. In 1988, the regional legislature in Nagorno-Karabakh voted in favour of joining the Armenian Soviet Socialist Republic, a move that found little support in Moscow. Following the 1991 dissolution of the Soviet Union, Armenian separatists backed by Yerevan took over control of large parts of Nagorno-Karabakh, home to a significant Azerbaijani minority, as well as seven adjacent Azerbaijani districts. In the ensuining fighting, an estimated 25.000 to 30.000 people were killed with many more displaced from their homeland. The seperatists declared independence as the the Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh, only recognized by Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transnistria, themselves also unrecognised republics. In February 2017, the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh Republic officially became known as the Republic of Artsakh.
 
Despite a Russian-brokered ceasefire agreement in place since 1994, violations of the ceasefire occur at regular intervals, the most significant of which took place in 2016 and July 2020, resulting in the deaths of hundreds of soldiers and civilians. From July to September 2020, Azerbaijan conducted a series of military exercises with the participation of Turkey's ground and air forces, which likely strengthened Azerbaijan's perceived power and resolve to end the Karabakh conflict in its favour.
 
In addition to providing military training and equipment to Azerbaijan's military, Turkey has also begun exporting drones (and likely electronic warfare equipment) to Azerbaijan. [1] Dozens of Armenian soldiers awoke to this new reality on the 27th of September when Bayraktar TB2 UCAVs started releasing Roketsan MAM-L Smart Munitions over Armenian positions, striking at least three 9K33 Osa and three 9K35 Strela-10 mobile surface-to-air missile systems. These systems appeared just as unaware and incapable of tackling the drone threat overhead as the Russian Pantsir-S1s in Syria and Libya, and all were destroyed without ever knowing what hit them. Turkey's highly efficient use of drones and supporting electronics warfare systems has boosted its increasingly assertive international role and growing political and military weight (Bayraktar Diplomacy). It has now reached the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, and will certainly influence the outcome of the current round of fighting.
 
The combat effectiveness of the Bayraktar TB2s reached such heights that Canada found itself forced to suspend drone technology sales to Turkey 'upon learning of allegations made regarding Canadian technology being used in the military conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh'. [2] As the Bayraktar TB2 is outfitted with Canadian-produced sensors and laser targeting technology, this could temporarily slow production of Bayraktar TB2s (at least until domestic replacements become available). In reality, the ban on drone technology sales is likely to achieve little but to speed up the research and production of these indigenous replacements, making Turkey self-sufficient in yet another category of weapons manufacturing.

 


A detailed list of the destroyed and captured vehicles of both sides can be seen below. This list will be updated as additional footage becomes available.

This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is undoubtedly higher than recorded here. Small arms, munitions, derelict vehicles and non-strategic targets such as checkpoints are not included in this list. Footage of massive stashes (1) (2) (3) (4) of small arms and munitions are a good indicator of the size of the munition stockpiles left behind by the Armenian Army.

 
(Click on the numbers to get a picture of each individual captured or destroyed vehicle)

 

Armenia / Republic of Artsakh


Tanks (192, of which destroyed: 121, damaged: 5, captured: 66)


Armoured fighting vehicles (54, of which destroyed: 24, captured: 30)

 

Infantry fighting vehicles (50, of which destroyed: 27, captured: 23)

 

Self-propelled anti-tank missile systems (6, of which destroyed: 1, captured: 5)

 

Towed artillery (150, of which destroyed: 111, damaged: 9, captured: 29)


Self-propelled artillery (22, of which destroyed: 16, damaged: 1, captured: 5)


Multiple rocket launchers (75, of which destroyed: 72, captured: 2 abandoned: 1)


Ballistic Missiles (1, of which destroyed: 1)

 

Mortars (19, of which destroyed: 4, captured: 15)

 

Anti-tank guided missiles (56, of which destroyed: 3, captured 53, of which 8 launcher or optic)

 

Man-Portable Air Defence Systems (2 captured)

 

Surface-to-air missile systems (27, of which destroyed: 26, captured: 1)

Radars (12, of which destroyed: 12)

 

Jammers and Deception systems (2, of which destroyed: 2)

 

Aircraft and Helicopters (2, of which destroyed: 2)

 

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (4, of which destroyed: 4)

 

Trucks, Vehicles and Jeeps (507, of which destroyed: 244, damaged: 8, captured: 255)


Decoys (2, of which destroyed: 2)

 

Strategic locations hit (22)


Azerbaijan


Tanks (32, of which destroyed: 20, damaged: 8, abandoned: 1, captured: 2, captured but later lost: 1)


Armoured fighting vehicles (13, of which destroyed: 2, damaged: 1, abandoned: 4, captured: 8)

 

Infantry fighting vehicles (31, of which destroyed: 16, damaged: 2, abandoned: 4, captured: 9)

 

Multiple rocket launchers (1, of which destroyed: 1)

 

Mortars (1, of which captured: 1)

 

Aircraft and Helicopters (12, of which destroyed: 12)


Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (25, of which destroyed: 22, captured: 3)

 

Trucks, Vehicles and Jeeps (30, of which destroyed: 16, damaged: 7, abandoned: 6, captured: 2)

 


Special thanks to Ilya.ACyrano7, Dee_Jonesyboi, Dr James Ford and Red Fox.

 

[1] Azerbaijan buys the deadly Turkish Bayraktar TB2 mid-range strike UAV https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2020/06/27/azerbaijan-buys-the-deadly-turkish-bayraktar-tb2-mid-range-strike-uav/


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The Idlib Turkey Shoot: The Destruction and Capture of Vehicles and Equipment by Turkish and Rebel Forces 

89 comments:

  1. S-300 will down Turkish drones with ease, and also their warplanes

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    Replies
    1. Really? So what are they waiting for? to loose all their tanks and then start defending?

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    2. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UsFVGSET3I4

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    3. S-300 SA system cannot destroy UAV, specially the TB2 Bayraktar because it has a very low the signal emlission and almost undetectable for such systels like the S-300, even the low altitude SA system Pantsyr has troubles to detect the TB2 UAV and when it detects it, it's already to late

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    4. You were wrong...s300 and any electronic device is jamming by Turkey Koral System...this happen in Syria, Libya

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    5. wow, this guy could not be more wrong.

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    6. What is wrong about it, if used right the S-300 is capable of downing drones, since it is mean to even down warplanes. I think the Armenian operators just weren't trained enough by the Russians to do it, but the Azeri blitzkrieg still failed. It's a stalemate for now.

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  2. It is a Su-25K that go destroyed (there are a few words written in Czech language on the available pictures)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It is one of the 9 Su-25K that Slovak Republic sold to Armenia in 2004. They sold 9 Su-25K and 1 Su-25UBK. The safety writings on that pylon are in Slovak language.
      https://www.ustreps.sk/reakcia-na-medializaciu-predaja-lietadiel-su-25k/

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  3. Does Azerbaijan/ Armrnia have any drone-counter system?

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    Replies
    1. Armenia does but they are being destroyed by Turkish and İsraeli drones. :D

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    2. Krasukha down your drones with EW :D

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    3. Harops are designed to destroy Krasukhas... Once they detect the radar source they automatically dive to destroy them.... Only thing now helping Armenians is the wether.

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  4. I know I am Armenian and I have a bias here, but Azerbaijan have lost about two times more military assets then you have listed above. Please updatr using oyher sources and not Azerbaijani or Armenian.

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    Replies
    1. As this is a list of visually confirmed destroyed vehicles and equipment, I simply have to do with the footage available.

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    2. Is it what your Armenian propaganda Minsitry says?

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  5. Just one question those tanks targeted by loitering ammo dornes, should be listed as destroyed? Why not damaged. And this is in the case you consider that the attack was succesfull, maybe the drone operator just zoomed in an enemy tank, no evidence those tanks were destroyed.

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    Replies
    1. Because the top armour of T-72 tanks is very thin, so any hit there is more likely to destroy the tank rather than just damaging it.

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    2. what if they just zoomed in? And i see the camera stopped when the UAV was far from its target. Look fake for me.

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    3. These are Harop footage I found in Youtube, the missle cam is different, the camera on stop when the missle hit its target:

      https://youtu.be/cAV0FcHthAc

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    4. https://youtu.be/x_Un08LCyKk

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  6. А как учтено это видео от армянской стороны ?? https://t.me/military_arm/1429

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  7. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f8Ztvn1qG8U

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  8. Armenia s loosing the war ...what a big losses

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  9. Armenian unknown van/jeep 10 looks very much like Nissan Pathfinder (R51), 3 and 4 may match with it too.

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    Replies
    1. As vehicle order changed I will just clarify that this comment meant these ones:
      https://i.postimg.cc/gksVmkcZ/Screenshot-732.png
      https://i.postimg.cc/0jrx5nb7/Screenshot-526.png
      https://i.postimg.cc/43rFH1Lz/Screenshot-596.png
      and actually that one too:
      https://i.postimg.cc/fWmxn2d1/Screenshot-761.png

      Delete
    2. Unknown truck 11 (https://i.postimg.cc/wMFfm5Z2/Screenshot-514.png) should be ZiL-130

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  10. if i may ask a question? i dont understand the first list. it says 70 tanks which 67 of them destroyed or abandoned and i understand 3 if them captured but when i look at the list there are lots of captured and abandoned tanks.so what is the meaning of the 3 tanks that are in the list?thank you again for your work.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 3 tanks are damaged.Not captured or destroyed

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    2. 3 damaged tanks might be destroyed at the moment.How do you know :)

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  11. thank you all for the answers.appreciated

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  12. Since you first wrote the article on September 28, Armenian tank losses have jumped from some 40 to over 70, but Azeri losses have remained the same at 20 or 21. Do you mean that not a single Azeri tank has been destroyed in the meantime? If Armenian losses were indeed as high as you claim them to be, and Azeri ones as low, why haven't Azeri forces been able to register significant advances on the ground? Their territorial gains have been marginal, if not minimal, in view of the qualitative difference in armament between the two warring sides, which you pertinently describe. Their infantry is not following? One would expect the Azeri army to be in the capital of Karabagh, even Yerevan, by now if Armenian losses were this high. How do you explain this discrepancy?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Because these are only footages.

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    2. I did not understand your reply. Do you mean there are footages not to be trusted, or the real number of material destroyed is even larger?

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    3. These are only footages.Armenia and Azerbaijan have more casulties obviously.
      Karabakh is mountainous land.Conditions are very diffucult.Armenians has prepared for 30 years.That why Azerbaijan has not gained so much land
      Also you cant know what strategy does Azerbaijan use.Armenia defence may collapse and then Azerbaijan may enter the capital suddenly.

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    4. You should take look at Turkeys Afrin operation.Ypg defence collapsed suddenly but Turkey cant advance so much.

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    5. Usa not allowing Turkey to Advances....is red line.. i hope you are understanding

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  13. this statistics is very biased in two ways 1) you obviously count also undocumented losses like S-300 (noone proved it yet) and secondly Armenians don't use to such extend modern drones so they also lack means of providing visual evidence. I really doubt Azeris' losses are so minor. Only from the logic of things -they are the ones advancing on fortified positions. Also in several times greater numbers than opposing force. So their losses are in reality most likely at least the same

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    1. Hi, thank you for your interest. As stated in the article ''This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is undoubtedly higher than recorded here.''

      This isn't bias, it's a lack of photographic evidence that allows us to accurately estimate Azerbaijani losses. Second, the destruction of the S-300 was confirmed by satellite imagery. Thank you.

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    2. "lack of photography evidence which allows to accurately estimate" - that's a little bit of contradiction. But whatever :) IMHO Azeris post as much as they can, opposite to Armenians which have no time or means of taking those pictures and videos... So if some side's losses are considerably higher than documented, it's definitely Azerbaijan

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    3. Everytime when they got a video they immediatley post it on their twitter acc. So its not the lack of time, its the lack of destroyed military items.

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  14. so boon by your logic in the first gulf war usa and allied forces had lost 1000 tanks thousands of apcs and hundred thousand soldiers?because why not?iraq was on the defense had the most numerous air defense in the world and they dont have time or the capability to document allied losses.i am right right?^_^

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    1. I am just stating that Azeris rather don't even publish the number of lost soldiers.... and basically all of the documentation here is provided by drones. Which Armenia doesn't extensively use. So considering that it's quite logical. If you believe that Azerbaijan lost just what was admited by their government then you're pretty naive

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  15. It still sounds like wishful thinking on your part boon. Oryx has stayed objective, basing his counts on visually confirmed kills & damaged vehicles. Same methodology as he did for the Syrian war. We see the same type of by biased, low-brow propagandists coming each time. You seem no different.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think we all know that if the Armenians were wracking up vehicle hits/kills they'd be posting more of their potatocam vids on their MOD Youtube. There's a reason Oryx's tallies here might be so triggering.

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    2. yes so true thank you!i am really sick and tired of these propagandists coming here acting like they are trying to explain things.also thank you again oryx for your hard work.

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  16. So what do think on how this war will progress? Assuming Armenians can't come up with a way to shoot down the drones, do you think the result of the war is certain or will the mountains provide Armenians unassailable defense lines that will change the fate of the this war?

    ReplyDelete
  17. Good compilation, I think Azerbaijan lost 10 Harops since 27 September. https://lostarmour.info/karabakh/item.php?id=26093 and at least one An-2 crashed in Azerbaijani territory. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0tjdVVitUs&feature=emb_title

    Good work.

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  18. Would be good if you could count the estimated death doll by drone footages and on the land both for the armenian and azeri site. There has been a lot of rumors that the casualties (especially those of the armenians) are much higher than those which have been published by the MoD (see FAZ magazine in germany).

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  19. seems like armenian army is being decimated.

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  20. Hey Oryx, I have been checking your pics of Israeli Harops crashed & downed and found in the web 4 more downings for your list.
    1) https://t.me/infoteka24/8295
    2) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoeM3qU8by4&feature=emb_title at 11:20
    3) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TcBJCzyCXcg&feature=emb_title
    4) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GNYy4uc0RCU&feature=emb_title

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks, I'll include two of these as the others could very well be wrecks from loitering munitions that hit their target.

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    2. Seems another one reported lost since your answer.
      https://t.me/anna_news/8965

      You should cover tanks and vehicles losses from past conflicts like the Angolan Civil War or Yemen.

      Delete
  21. Can I ask, what is the S-300 trailer? I thought it was a supply container. What part of the trailer is it?

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  22. Seems like there are two GAZ-53s:
    First on the left on GAZ-66 (1, destroyed) https://i.postimg.cc/6QN4jsyh/7jj.png
    Second on Unknown truck (51, captured) https://i.postimg.cc/wMFfm5Z2/Screenshot-514.png

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  23. Is this list updated daily? The article is dated from September 27, it seems confusing.

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    Replies
    1. As stated in the article ''This list will be updated as additional footage becomes available.''

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  24. Question, how come the Armenians are not using MANPADS or their airforce to counter the drones? I am not taking sides there, but asking this as a neutral observer.

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    Replies
    1. MANPADS don't have radars so you have to visually see the target, not such an easy task. The target has to be flying low enough which it doesn't and it has to emmit enough heat for the missile to lock on and track which is not happening because Azerbaijani drones are all equipped with internal combustion engines. The heat output is similiar to the engine of a car. Not like a helicopter engine with a huge turbine.

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  25. Were any Bayraktar drones downed by Russians in Syria and/or Libya, or the Russians could not get them?

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    Replies
    1. 17 Bayraktars Destroyed in Libya by Russian Pantsirs and UAE Wing Loong and 4 in Syria.

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    2. Thank you. Russian sources say 100. I suspected it was very exaggerated.

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    3. No 100 various drones could have been destroyed by Russian Forces. But not TB2s, Turkish forces operates Anka-S (Combat drone), Bayraktar Mini(Small drone launched by hand), Israeli Harops, Bayraktar Tactical UAV (Non combat) and others.

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    4. only 9 visually proved bayraktar losses so far. 6 in libya, 2 in syria, 1 in nagorno karabagh.

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    5. No,17 lost visually destroyed or crashed in Lybia and 4 lost in Syria one by PPK rebels and 3 by Syrian Army.

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    6. 18 Lost in Lybia. 4 in Syria, 1 in Iraq /Kurds and 2 crashed in Turkey.
      https://dronewars.net/drone-crash-database/

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    7. 23-27 in Libya, 5 in Syria, 1 in Iraq, 2 crashed in Turkey. These numbers are based on https://lostarmour.info/ and this list: https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1269883326501916673.

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  26. Armenians destroyed Azeri pickup truck.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Riv0Ol-pMPk

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  27. Oryx, thank you for this list. It really helps me a lot. But, I would kindly ask you to add the link to the videos, if possible, of course. This would help even much.

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  28. check this oryx https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8mYEBWFHl18&has_verified=1

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  29. The last of the 4 Marauder MRAP is circled wrongly because is later used on the Israeli SandCat. However the 7th Israeli Sandcat is not circled.

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  30. 9,10 and 11 fagot is the same picture that is named 4,5,6 kornet

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That's because there are six boxes in the picture (3x Fagot and 3x Kornet)

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  31. Can you count the amount of damage in $ please? For both sides

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    Replies
    1. We can only calculate with market prices but we all know neither of the sides buy things with market prices.

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  32. What the heck is Armenian air force doing??! And why aren't Air Defence Batteries able to track and destroy these drones before they hit them??!

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    Replies
    1. They didn't take part in this war with few exceptions. Equipment od Nagorno-Karabakh forces is obsolete or even not operational (Krug). They can't shoot down Bayraktar TB2 (~6860 m flight altitude) with Osa-AK/AKM because this SAM is limited to 5km altitude.

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  33. Any information on the efficciency of Armenian air defence systems?
    Armenian Ministry of Defense spokesman claimed 55% of the losses in air was a result of 9K33 Osa-AK/AKM engagements.
    Any news (even unconfirmed) about other air defence systems: Kub, Krug, Pechora, S-300PS?
    Thanks in advance and thank You for this list. We all know its not entirely accurate, but it is an indicator of what really happened...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Kub and Krug were probably not operational and their efficiency was likely 0%. There is one proof of S-300PS in Nagorno-Karabach missile usage with uknown result. No idea about Pechora.UAV losses are probably significantly higher than on this list.

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    2. Thanks for your kind answer. I thought the same as you about Krug, but it is a bit strange to me not to use Kub missile systems. If you have any news in the future, this would certainly be interesting! :)

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    3. This photo of Krug launcher (https://ria.ru/20201025/karabakh-1581496013.html#pv=g%3D1581496013%2Fp%3D1581422695)in Stepanakert explains why it wasn't operational and probably used as decoy.
      This destroyed Kub launcher (https://i.postimg.cc/28nkjN0Q/Screenshot-1985.png) didn't have any missile attached to rails and it's unlikely that all of them were used. Without repairs and modernization these outdated SAMs have no combat value.
      I also think that second lost Bayraktar TB2 was shot down on 8.11.2020 in "southeastern direction"(statement of Armenian MoD) by Tor-M2KM which was destroyed next day in hangar in Martuni/Khojavend. I suppose that this Tor contributed to many other UAV losses.

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  34. Are the number of losses updated since 27 September? They seem quite high for being from 27 September, but I do not see any update date... But a very good and useful data, also considering that it is only losses which have photo/video evidence. :-)

    ReplyDelete