Sunday, 27 September 2020

The Fight For Nagorno-Karabakh: Documenting Losses on The Sides Of Armenia and Azerbaijan

By Stijn Mitzer in collaboration with Jakub Janovsky, Dan, and COIN

Armed clashes which commenced early in the morning of the 27th of September 2020 over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh have so far caused considerable human and materiel losses on both sides. The renewed clashes are an extension of the three decades long Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, and at present the short-term implications can only be guessed at. While solid information regarding materiel losses is scarce, rumours fly wildly – and unconfirmed and false reports are readily repeated for propaganda purposes. This article will attempt to break down all confirmed material losses by carefully studying the footage made available by both warring parties.

The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is an ethnical and territorial conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh and seven surrounding districts, which are controlled by the self-declared Republic of Artsakh, but are internationally recognized as belonging to Azerbaijan. The status of Nagorno-Karabakh has been disputed since 1918, when Armenia and Azerbaijan declared independence from the Russian Empire. In the early 1920s, the predominantly Armenian-populated region of Nagorno-Karabakh became an autonomous oblast within the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic. In 1988, the regional legislature in Nagorno-Karabakh voted in favour of joining the Armenian Soviet Socialist Republic, a move that found little support in Moscow. Following the 1991 dissolution of the Soviet Union, Armenian separatists backed by Yerevan took over control of large parts of Nagorno-Karabakh, home to a significant Azerbaijani minority, as well as seven adjacent Azerbaijani districts. In the ensuining fighting, an estimated 25.000 to 30.000 people were killed with many more displaced from their homeland. The seperatists declared independence as the the Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh, only recognized by Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transnistria, themselves also unrecognised republics. In February 2017, the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh Republic officially became known as the Republic of Artsakh.

Despite a Russian-brokered ceasefire agreement in place since 1994, violations of the ceasefire occur at regular intervals, the most significant of which took place in 2016 and July 2020, resulting in the deaths of hundreds of soldiers and civilians. From July to September 2020, Azerbaijan conducted a series of military exercises with the participation of Turkey's ground and air forces, which likely strengthened Azerbaijan's perceived power and resolve to end the Karabakh conflict in its favour.

In addition to providing military training and equipment to Azerbaijan's military, Turkey has also begun exporting drones (and likely electronic warfare equipment) to Azerbaijan. [1] Dozens of Armenian soldiers awoke to this new reality on the 27th of September when Bayraktar TB2 UCAVs started releasing Roketsan MAM-L Smart Munitions over Armenian positions, striking at least three 9K33 Osa and three 9K35 Strela-10 mobile surface-to-air missile systems. These systems appeared just as unaware and incapable of tackling the drone threat overhead as the Russian Pantsir-S1s in Syria and Libya, and all were destroyed without ever knowing what hit them. Turkey's highly efficient use of drones and supporting electronics warfare systems has boosted its increasingly assertive international role and growing political and military weight (Bayraktar Diplomacy). It has now reached the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, and will certainly influence the outcome of the current round of fighting.

The combat effectiveness of the Bayraktar TB2s reached such heights that Canada found itself forced to suspend drone technology sales to Turkey 'upon learning of allegations made regarding Canadian technology being used in the military conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh'. [2] As the Bayraktar TB2 is outfitted with Canadian-produced sensors and laser targeting technology, this could temporarily slow production of Bayraktar TB2s (at least until domestic replacements become available). In reality, the ban on drone technology sales is likely to achieve little but to speed up the research and production of these indigenous replacements, making Turkey self-sufficient in yet another category of weapons manufacturing.

A detailed list of the destroyed and captured vehicles of both sides can be seen below. This list will be updated as additional footage becomes available.

This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is undoubtedly higher than recorded here. Small arms, munitions, derelict vehicles and non-strategic targets such as checkpoints are not included in this list. Footage of massive stashes (1) (2) (3) (4) of small arms and munitions are a good indicator of the size of the munition stockpiles left behind by the Armenian Army.

(Click on the numbers to get a picture of each individual captured or destroyed vehicle)

Armenia / Republic of Artsakh

Tanks (190, of which destroyed: 120, damaged: 5, captured: 65)

Armoured fighting vehicles (49, of which destroyed: 24, captured: 25)

21 MT-LB with Zastava M55 AA gun: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed) (3, destroyed) (4, destroyed) (5, destroyed) (6, destroyed) (7, destroyed) (8, destroyed) (9, destroyed by Spike-ER) (10, destroyed by Spike-ER) (11, captured) (12, captured) (13, captured) (14, 15 and 16, captured) (17, captured) (18, captured) (19, captured) (20, captured) (21, captured)
4 MT-LB with ZU-23 AA gun: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed) (3, destroyed) (4, captured)
2 MT-LB with AZP S-60 AA gun: (1, destroyed) (2, captured)
7 MT-LB: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed) (3, destroyed by Spike-ER) (4, captured) (5 and 6, captured) (7, captured)
1 BMP-1 with ZU-23 AA gun: (1, captured)
2 ZSU-23-4 'Shilka': (1, destroyed) (2, captured)
2 BRM-1K: (1, destroyed by Spike-ER) (2, captured)
3 BRDM-2: (1, destroyed) (2, captured) (3, captured)
1 BTR-70: (1, destroyed)
4 BTS-4: (1, destroyed) (2, captured) (3, captured) (4, captured)
2 Unknown AFV: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed)

Infantry fighting vehicles (49, of which destroyed: 26, captured: 23)

Self-propelled anti-tank missile systems (3, of which destroyed: 1, captured: 2)

2 9P148 Konkurs: (1, destroyed) (2, captured)
1 9P149 Shturm-S: (1, captured)

Towed artillery (150, of which destroyed: 111, damaged: 9, captured: 29)

2 85mm D-44 divisional gun: (1, destroyed) (2, damaged)
2 100mm MT-12 'Rapira' anti-tank gun: (1, captured) (2, captured)
5 100mm KS-19 AA gun used as howitzer: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed) (3, destroyed) (4, destroyed) (5, destroyed)
1 122 mm M-30 howitzer: (1, damaged)
66 122mm (D-30) howitzer 2A18: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed) (3, destroyed) (4, destroyed) (5, destroyed) (6, destroyed) (7, destroyed) (8, destroyed) (9, destroyed) (10, destroyed) (11, destroyed) (12, destroyed) (13, destroyed) (14, destroyed) (15, destroyed) (16, destroyed) (17, destroyed) (18, destroyed) (19, destroyed) (20, destroyed) (21, destroyed) (22, destroyed) (23, destroyed) (24, destroyed) (25, destroyed) (26, destroyed) (27, destroyed) (28, destroyed) (29, destroyed) (30, destroyed) (31, destroyed) (32, destroyed) (33, destroyed) (34, destroyed) (35, destroyed) (36, destroyed) (37, destroyed) (38, destroyed) (39, destroyed) (40, destroyed) (41, destroyed) (42, destroyed) (43, destroyed) (44, destroyed) (45, destroyed) (46, destroyed) (47, destroyed) (48, destroyed) (49, destroyed) (50, destroyed) (51, destroyed) (52, destroyed by Spike-ER) (53, destroyed by Spike-ER) (54, captured) (55, captured) (56, 57 and 58, captured) (59, captured) (60, captured) (61 and 62, captured) (63, captured) (64, captured) (65, captured) (66, captured)
14 152mm (D-1) gun-howitzer M-1943: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed) (3, destroyed) (4, destroyed) (5, destroyed) (6, destroyed) (7, destroyed) (8, destroyed) (9, destroyed) (10, captured) (11 and 12, captured) (13, captured) (14, captured)
52 152mm (D-20) gun-howitzer M-1955: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed) (3, destroyed) (4, destroyed) (5, destroyed) (6, destroyed) (7, destroyed) (8, destroyed) (9, destroyed) (10, destroyed) (11, destroyed) (12, destroyed) (13, destroyed) (14, destroyed) (15, destroyed) (16, destroyed) (17, destroyed) (18, destroyed) (19, destroyed) (20, destroyed) (21, destroyed) (22, destroyed) (23, destroyed) (24, destroyed) (25, destroyed) (26, destroyed) (27, destroyed) (28, destroyed) (29, destroyed) (30, destroyed) (31, destroyed) (32, destroyed) (33, destroyed) (34, destroyed) (35, destroyed) (36, destroyed) (37, destroyed by Spike-ER) (38, damaged) (39, damaged) (40, damaged) (41 and 42, damaged) (43, damaged) (44, damaged) (45, captured) (46, captured) (47, captured) (48, captured) (49 and 50, captured) (51, captured) (52, captured)
8 152mm 2A36 Giatsint-B field-gun: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed) (3, destroyed) (4, destroyed) (5, destroyed) (6, destroyed) (7, destroyed) (8, destroyed)

Self-propelled artillery (21, of which destroyed: 16, damaged: 1, captured: 4)

Multiple rocket launchers (75, of which destroyed: 72, captured: 2 abandoned: 1)

Ballistic Missiles (1, of which destroyed: 1)

1 R-17 'Scud-B': (1, destroyed)

Mortars (19, of which destroyed: 4, captured: 15)

4 60mm M57: (1 and 2, captured) (3, captured) (4, captured)
7 82mm M69: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed) (3, destroyed) (4, captured) (5, captured) (6, captured) (7, captured)
1 120mm M74: (1, captured)
5 120mm M75: (1, captured) (2, captured) (3, captured) (4, captured) (5, captured)
2 Unknown mortar: (1, destroyed) (2, captured)

Anti-tank guided missiles (56, of which destroyed: 3, captured 53, of which 8 launcher or optic)

19 9M111 Fagot: (1 and 2, destroyed) (3, 4, 5 and 6, captured) (7, 8, 9 and 10, captured) (11, 12 and 13, captured) (14 and 15, captured) (16, 17, 18 and 19, captured)
18 9M113 Konkurs: (1, destroyed) (2, captured) (3, 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8, captured) (9, captured) (10 and 11, captured) (12, captured) (13 and 14, captured) (15, 16 and 17, captured) (18, captured)
6 9M115 Metis: (1 and 2, captured) (3, 4, 5 and 6, captured)
5 9P135M launcher for the 9M111 Fagot and 9M113 Konkurs: (1, captured) (2, captured) (3, captured) (4, captured) (5, captured)
6 9M133M-2 Kornet-EM: (1, 2 and 3, captured) (4, 5 and 6, captured)
2 9P163 launcher for the 9M133 Kornet: (1, captured) (2, captured)
1 1PN65 'Trakt-1' thermal optic for 9P135M Konkurs ATGM launcher: (1, captured)

Jammers and Deception systems (2, of which destroyed: 2)

1 R-330P Piramida-I: (1, destroyed)
1 Repellent-1: (1, destroyed)

Aircraft and Helicopters (2, of which destroyed: 2)

1 Su-25K: (1, crashed)
1 Mi-8: (1, destroyed)

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (4, of which destroyed: 4)

1 X-55: (1, destroyed)
1 Quadcopter drone: (1, crashed)
1 BZEZ loitering munition: (1, crashed)
1 Unknown UAV: (1, destroyed)

Trucks, Vehicles and Jeeps (502, of which destroyed: 241, damaged: 8, captured: 253)

Decoys (2, of which destroyed: 2)

2 Decoy 9K33 Osa: (1, destroyed by loitering munition) (2, destroyed by loitering munition)

Strategic locations hit (22)

Radio mast: (1) (2) (3) (4)
military base: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7, hit by Spike-ER) (8, hit by Spike-ER)
command post: (1) (2) (3) (4)
storage depot: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5, hit by loitering munition)
Stepanakert Airport: (1, hit by loitering munition)

Azerbaijan

Tanks (31, of which destroyed: 19, damaged: 8, abandoned: 1, captured: 2, captured but later lost: 1)

1 T-72 'Ural': (1, destroyed)
3 T-72A: (1, destroyed) (2, damaged) (3, damaged)
9 T-72AV/T-72 'Aslan': (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed) (3, destroyed) (4, destroyed) (5, damaged) (6, damaged) (7, damaged) (8, damaged) (9, captured by Armenia, but later recaptured by Azerbaijan)
15 Unknown T-72: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed) (3, destroyed) (4, destroyed) (5, destroyed) (6, destroyed) (7, destroyed) (8, destroyed) (9, destroyed) (10, destroyed) (11, destroyed) (12, destroyed) (13, destroyed) (14, damaged) (15, abandoned)
3 T-90S: (1, damaged and captured) (2, damaged and captured) (3, damaged)

Armoured fighting vehicles (13, of which destroyed: 2, damaged: 1, abandoned: 4, captured: 8)

8 BTR-70: (1, captured) (2, captured) (3, captured) (4, captured) (5, captured) (6 and 7, captured) (8, captured)
4 Unknown AFV: (1, 2 and 3, damaged and abandoned) (4, damaged and abandoned)
1 IMR-2: (1, damaged)

Infantry fighting vehicles (31, of which destroyed: 16, damaged: 2, abandoned: 4, captured: 9)

2 BMP-1: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed)
16 BMP-2: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed) (3, destroyed) (4, destroyed) (5, destroyed) (6, destroyed) (7, damaged) (8, damaged and abandoned) (9, abandoned) (10, abandoned) (11, damaged and abandoned) (12, captured) (13, captured) (14, captured) (15 captured) (16, captured)
1 BMP-2K: (1, destroyed)
1 BMP-3: (1, destroyed)
8 BTR-82A: (1, destroyed) (2 and 3, destroyed) (4, damaged) (5, damaged and captured) (6, captured) (7, captured) (8 captured)
3 Unknown BMP: (1, destroyed) (2 and 3, destroyed)

Multiple rocket launchers (1, of which destroyed: 1)

1 KRL 122: (1, destroyed)

Mortars (1, of which captured: 1)

1 60mm 20N6M: (1, captured)

Aircraft and Helicopters (12, of which destroyed: 12)

11 An-2 (used as unmanned bait in order for Armenia to reveal the location of air defence systems): (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed) (3, destroyed) (4, destroyed) (5, destroyed) (6, destroyed) (7, destroyed) (8, destroyed) (9, destroyed) (10, destroyed) (11, crashed)
1 Mi-8/17 (Loss admitted by Azerbaijan)

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (25, of which destroyed: 22, captured: 3)

1 Aerostar surveillance UAV: (1, crashed)
11 IAI Harop loitering munition: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed) (3, destroyed) (4, destroyed) (5, destroyed) (6, destroyed) (7, destroyed) (8, destroyed) (9, crashed in Iran) (10, crashed in Iran) (11, crashed in Georgia)
2 SkyStriker loitering munition: (1, crashed and captured) (2, crashed and captured)
1 Orbiter 1K loitering munition: (1, crashed and captured)
2 Bayraktar TB2 UCAV: (1, crashed) (2, destroyed)
8 Unknown UAV: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed) (3, destroyed) (4, destroyed) (5, destroyed) (6, destroyed) (7, destroyed) (8, destroyed)

Trucks, Vehicles and Jeeps (30, of which destroyed: 16, damaged: 7, abandoned: 5, captured: 2)

1 GAZ-3308: (1, damaged)
2 Ural-4320: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed)
3 KamAZ: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed) (3, captured)
3 MAZ: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed) (3, damaged)
4 Marauder MRAP: (1, damaged) (2, damaged and abandoned) (3 and 4, abandoned)
4 Matador MRAP: (1, damaged) (2 and 3, damaged) (4, abandoned)
7 Plasan SandCat: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed) (3, damaged) (4, damaged and abandoned) (5, damaged and abandoned) (6, damaged and abandoned) (7, abandoned)
7 Unknown truck: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed) (3, destroyed) (4 and 5, destroyed) (6, destroyed) (7, destroyed)
2 Van or jeep: (1, destroyed) (2, captured)

Special thanks to Ilya.A, Cyrano7, Dee_Jonesyboi, Dr James Ford and Red Fox.

[1] Azerbaijan buys the deadly Turkish Bayraktar TB2 mid-range strike UAV https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2020/06/27/azerbaijan-buys-the-deadly-turkish-bayraktar-tb2-mid-range-strike-uav/

[2] Statement from Minister Champagne on suspension of export permits to Turkey https://www.canada.ca/en/global-affairs/news/2020/10/statement-from-minister-champagne-on-suspension-of-export-permits-to-turkey.html

89 comments:

Axel28 September 2020 at 03:42
S-300 will down Turkish drones with ease, and also their warplanes
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Ansierra30 September 2020 at 15:52
It is a Su-25K that go destroyed (there are a few words written in Czech language on the available pictures)
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Nguyễn2 October 2020 at 12:48
Does Azerbaijan/ Armrnia have any drone-counter system?
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Aram7 October 2020 at 09:44
I know I am Armenian and I have a bias here, but Azerbaijan have lost about two times more military assets then you have listed above. Please updatr using oyher sources and not Azerbaijani or Armenian.
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Anonymous7 October 2020 at 11:14
Just one question those tanks targeted by loitering ammo dornes, should be listed as destroyed? Why not damaged. And this is in the case you consider that the attack was succesfull, maybe the drone operator just zoomed in an enemy tank, no evidence those tanks were destroyed.
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Буратин О.7 October 2020 at 21:04
А как учтено это видео от армянской стороны ?? https://t.me/military_arm/1429
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Буратин О.7 October 2020 at 21:08
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f8Ztvn1qG8U
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Unknown8 October 2020 at 10:57
Armenia s loosing the war ...what a big losses
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Anonymous9 October 2020 at 01:27
Armenian unknown van/jeep 10 looks very much like Nissan Pathfinder (R51), 3 and 4 may match with it too.
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Anonymous9 October 2020 at 05:29
if i may ask a question? i dont understand the first list. it says 70 tanks which 67 of them destroyed or abandoned and i understand 3 if them captured but when i look at the list there are lots of captured and abandoned tanks.so what is the meaning of the 3 tanks that are in the list?thank you again for your work.
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Anonymous9 October 2020 at 13:19
thank you all for the answers.appreciated
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Anonymous10 October 2020 at 00:05
Since you first wrote the article on September 28, Armenian tank losses have jumped from some 40 to over 70, but Azeri losses have remained the same at 20 or 21. Do you mean that not a single Azeri tank has been destroyed in the meantime? If Armenian losses were indeed as high as you claim them to be, and Azeri ones as low, why haven't Azeri forces been able to register significant advances on the ground? Their territorial gains have been marginal, if not minimal, in view of the qualitative difference in armament between the two warring sides, which you pertinently describe. Their infantry is not following? One would expect the Azeri army to be in the capital of Karabagh, even Yerevan, by now if Armenian losses were this high. How do you explain this discrepancy?
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Boon12 October 2020 at 06:02
this statistics is very biased in two ways 1) you obviously count also undocumented losses like S-300 (noone proved it yet) and secondly Armenians don't use to such extend modern drones so they also lack means of providing visual evidence. I really doubt Azeris' losses are so minor. Only from the logic of things -they are the ones advancing on fortified positions. Also in several times greater numbers than opposing force. So their losses are in reality most likely at least the same
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Anonymous13 October 2020 at 07:52
so boon by your logic in the first gulf war usa and allied forces had lost 1000 tanks thousands of apcs and hundred thousand soldiers?because why not?iraq was on the defense had the most numerous air defense in the world and they dont have time or the capability to document allied losses.i am right right?^_^
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A literate carpenter17 October 2020 at 17:42
It still sounds like wishful thinking on your part boon. Oryx has stayed objective, basing his counts on visually confirmed kills & damaged vehicles. Same methodology as he did for the Syrian war. We see the same type of by biased, low-brow propagandists coming each time. You seem no different.
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Rodeo18 October 2020 at 08:53
So what do think on how this war will progress? Assuming Armenians can't come up with a way to shoot down the drones, do you think the result of the war is certain or will the mountains provide Armenians unassailable defense lines that will change the fate of the this war?
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Anonymous18 October 2020 at 13:10
Good compilation, I think Azerbaijan lost 10 Harops since 27 September. https://lostarmour.info/karabakh/item.php?id=26093 and at least one An-2 crashed in Azerbaijani territory. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0tjdVVitUs&feature=emb_title

Good work.
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Anonymous19 October 2020 at 02:49
Would be good if you could count the estimated death doll by drone footages and on the land both for the armenian and azeri site. There has been a lot of rumors that the casualties (especially those of the armenians) are much higher than those which have been published by the MoD (see FAZ magazine in germany).
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Anonymous19 October 2020 at 17:21
seems like armenian army is being decimated.
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Unknown21 October 2020 at 11:51
Hey Oryx, I have been checking your pics of Israeli Harops crashed & downed and found in the web 4 more downings for your list.
1) https://t.me/infoteka24/8295
2) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoeM3qU8by4&feature=emb_title at 11:20
3) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TcBJCzyCXcg&feature=emb_title
4) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GNYy4uc0RCU&feature=emb_title
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Anonymous21 October 2020 at 12:08
Can I ask, what is the S-300 trailer? I thought it was a supply container. What part of the trailer is it?
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Anonymous24 October 2020 at 10:44
Seems like there are two GAZ-53s:
First on the left on GAZ-66 (1, destroyed) https://i.postimg.cc/6QN4jsyh/7jj.png
Second on Unknown truck (51, captured) https://i.postimg.cc/wMFfm5Z2/Screenshot-514.png
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Anonymous25 October 2020 at 07:58
Is this list updated daily? The article is dated from September 27, it seems confusing.
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Anonymous25 October 2020 at 08:00
Question, how come the Armenians are not using MANPADS or their airforce to counter the drones? I am not taking sides there, but asking this as a neutral observer.
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Anonymous27 October 2020 at 11:41
Were any Bayraktar drones downed by Russians in Syria and/or Libya, or the Russians could not get them?
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Mike27 October 2020 at 13:15
Armenians destroyed Azeri pickup truck.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Riv0Ol-pMPk
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Unknown1 November 2020 at 03:02
Oryx, thank you for this list. It really helps me a lot. But, I would kindly ask you to add the link to the videos, if possible, of course. This would help even much.
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Anonymous6 November 2020 at 03:09
check this oryx https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8mYEBWFHl18&has_verified=1
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Anonymous6 November 2020 at 15:11
The last of the 4 Marauder MRAP is circled wrongly because is later used on the Israeli SandCat. However the 7th Israeli Sandcat is not circled.
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Anonymous6 November 2020 at 15:29
9,10 and 11 fagot is the same picture that is named 4,5,6 kornet
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Ales6 November 2020 at 16:51
Can you count the amount of damage in $ please? For both sides
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Unknown9 November 2020 at 08:43
2 billion dollars.....
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manu14 November 2020 at 15:01
What the heck is Armenian air force doing??! And why aren't Air Defence Batteries able to track and destroy these drones before they hit them??!
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Unknown16 November 2020 at 04:50
Any information on the efficciency of Armenian air defence systems?
Armenian Ministry of Defense spokesman claimed 55% of the losses in air was a result of 9K33 Osa-AK/AKM engagements.
Any news (even unconfirmed) about other air defence systems: Kub, Krug, Pechora, S-300PS?
Thanks in advance and thank You for this list. We all know its not entirely accurate, but it is an indicator of what really happened...
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Mimer17 November 2020 at 04:52
Are the number of losses updated since 27 September? They seem quite high for being from 27 September, but I do not see any update date... But a very good and useful data, also considering that it is only losses which have photo/video evidence. :-)
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