Friday, 19 November 2021

Tracking Worldwide Losses Of Chinese-Made UAVs


By Stijn Mitzer and Joost Oliemans

Much has been written and discussed about the quality of Chinese-made unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). While some argue that Chinese drones have proven cost-effective alternatives to American UAVs, others have pointed out the drones' high crash rates and reliability issues when compared to their Israeli, U.S. and Turkish counterparts. Despite these issues, Chinese UAVs remain highly popular on the market today. This is likely not the least due to the fact that there are few strings attached to Chinese arms sales, enabling countries like the United Arab Emirates to deploy its Chinese-made UCAVs over areas where it wouldn't be allowed to operate its U.S.-produced drones.
 
One could further argue that the apparent low acquisition costs of Chinese UAVs make them an ideal choice for countries on a budget. Conversely, the price of some Chinese UCAVs actually approach or in some cases even exceed those of their Western counterparts. To give just one example, the acquisition costs of a single Wing Loong II UCAV is believed to be around 15 million USD for an international customer, roughly three times the price of a Turkish Bayraktar TB2. Additionally, trading in reliability for a low acquisition price could ultimately prove more expensive than acquiring a reliable unmanned aerial platform from the get go. 
 
If the reliability of the Wing Loong II and TB2 were exactly the same, then a Wing Loong II costs around three times as much as a TB2. But if we assume, for the sake of argument, that the reliability of the Wing Loong II is only half that of the TB2, it in effect becomes six times as expensive considering the costs of replacing losses. The crash rate of the TB2 is reported to be one every 30.000 flight hours, which ultimately translates to some 166 dollars per operating hour. [1] If the crash rate of the Wing Loong II is double that figure (one in every 15.000 flight hours), then we find the costs amount to 1000 dollars per hour. In other words, the total cost of ownership is not just the initial acquisition price, even when we're not considering operating costs.
 
Countries like Jordan ultimately had to find this out the hard way, offering its entire fleet of CH-4Bs UCAVs for sale less than two years after acquiring the drones. [2] The same type fared little better in Iraq, with eight of its 20 CH-4Bs crashing within a timespan of just a few years while the twelve remaining examples are currently languishing in a hangar with a lack of spare parts. [3] [4] Elsewhere, Algeria lost three CH-4Bs to crashes in a matter of months, while countries like Nigeria, Morocco and Turkmenistan all purchased Turkish UCAVs after earlier acquiring Chinese-made UCAVs. [5] Their sketchy service record suggests that after-sale support provided by the Chinese manufacturers leaves something to be desired.
 

It is nonetheless difficult to provide an accurate overview of Chinese-made drone losses, as countries like Turkmenistan are unlikely to ever announce losses of their (Chinese-made) UAVs. Similarly, drones that crashed in Saudi Arabia's desert regions are likely to have been long taken away before a lost civilian ever has the chance to photograph the wreckage. This means that many losses often go unnoticed. In one notable case, the wreckage of an Emirati Wing Loong I that crashed in Libya somewhere in 2019 or 2020 was only found in August 2021, and that only by pure accident. [6] Suffice it to say that UAV losses are notoriously difficult to record even in active warzones.
 
This list aims to catalogue Chinese-made unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) losses in service with their operators worldwide as best as possible. The list only includes visually confirmed losses or losses confirmed by authorities. Thus, the actual number of UAVs lost is significantly higher than what is recorded here. This list will be updated as new crashes and downings occur.
 
Losses by U(C)AV type:
 
CH-4B UCAV: 21
Wing Loong II UCAV: 7
Wing Loong I UCAV: 5
Sky-09P: 3
UV10CAM: 2
Chilong CL-4: 2
Chilong CL-11: 2 
DB-2: 2
Sky-02A: 1
CH-3A UCAV: 1
CH-92A: 1
Harbin BZK-005: 1
Aisheng ASN-209: 1 
Sea Cavalry SD-60: 1
 
Losses by operator (country):
 
Saudi Arabia: 13
United Arab Emirates: 12
Iraq: 8
North Korea: 5
Libya: 4
Algeria: 3
Sudan: 2
China: 2
Ethiopia: 1
Nigeria: 1
Myanmar: 1
Egypt: 1
Pakistan: 1
 
Losses by location (country):
 
Libya: 18
Yemen: 15
Iraq: 14
South Korea: 5
Algeria: 3
Sudan: 3
China: 1
Myanmar: 1
Nigeria: 1
Egypt: 1
Pakistan: 1
Cambodia: 1
 
(Click on the equipment to get a picture of each UAV loss)
 

United Arab Emirates (12 lost)

 

Saudi Arabia (13 lost)

 
 

North Korea (5 lost)


Libya (4 lost)

 

Algeria (3 lost)

 

Sudan (2 lost)

 

Ethiopia

 

Myanmar (1 lost)


Nigeria (1 lost)

 

Egypt (1 lost)

 

Pakistan (1 lost)

 

China (2 lost)

 

[1] HALUK BAYRAKTAR İNGİLİZ DÜŞÜNCE KURULUŞU RUSI'NIN PANELİNDE KONUŞTU https://youtu.be/jKj-FOMQlNw
[6] عاجل| العثور على حطام طائرة بدون طيار جنوب مدينة بني وليد https://www.lj-bc.net/2021/08/138928.html 
 

15 comments:

  1. The drone in the last photo is a bayraktar?

    ReplyDelete
  2. This statistic is practically meaningless; you are not separating accidents caused by malfunctioning defects from losses from being shot down by enemy weapons, and the correlation between losses and quality from these two causes is completely different.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The goal of the list is to detail the losses, not to serve as a means of statistics.

      Delete
    2. But in your article, you make meaningless comparisons based on these loss figures as an accusation against the quality of Chinese UAVs.

      Delete
    3. I find this article accurate without much bias. Loss is Loss whether due to enemy fire or malfunction. It makes the drone useless when it losses.

      Delete
    4. This is ridiculous, the specific environment in which the drone is operated certainly has a very large impact on the probability of crashing. Can the loss of drones in Afghanistan against the Taliban be compared to the loss of drones in Libya against Turkish forces equipped with modern anti-aircraft missiles?
      Mr. Oryx, I don't understand why you deleted my last comment, so I'll just have to post it again. I don't think my comment violated any rules. I believe there is freedom of speech here, right?

      Delete
    5. Because your points have already been countered.

      Delete
    6. But I believe I have the right to answer people's comments about me, do I?

      Delete
  3. is there any statistc rom other country's falling UAVs?

    i think it could be the point to compare how fragile the China UAV is

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm planning on covering these (Israeli, Turkish, Russian and U.S.) next.

      Delete
    2. Israeli drones should be next. There are many sources, also Israel don't tend to deny their losses. Some are acknowledged without need of photos. Lebanon and Georgia are the main places Israeli drones were destroyed.

      Delete
  4. https://dronewars.net/2020/07/01/libyan-war-sees-record-number-of-drones-brought-down-to-earth/

    ReplyDelete
  5. According to the Iraqi government website, in October 2021, Iraq believed that the performance of Turkish drones was unreliable, and repurchased a batch of Chinese UCAVs (more than 12). At the same time, they could not be used in Iraqi hangars. Chinese UCAVs have also been used again. .

    ReplyDelete