By Stijn Mitzer and Joost Oliemans
A video
uploaded on the 26th of October 2021 depicts a meanwhile all too
familiar sight for those following armed conflicts: A Bayraktar TB2
striking an unsuspecting foe on the ground. [1] The difference to past
drone strikes carried out by the TB2 is that this one took place in
Eastern Ukraine, the first strike to have occurred here since the
delivery of TB2s to Ukraine in 2019. Less novel was the target of the
drone strike: A 122mm D-30 howitzer operated by separatist forces. The
successful destruction of the howitzer marked the 56th D-30 to have been
destroyed by TB2s over Nagorno-Karabakh, Syria and now Ukraine. [2]
The
drone strike reportedly was in response to the shelling of the village
of Hranitne in the Donetsk Oblast with D-30 howitzers earlier that day.
Interestingly, the TB2 only struck one out of the three D-30 howitzers
positioned in the field, evidently judging this a proportionate warning
to separatist forces not to violate the Minsk argeement rather than a
serious attempt to destroy and degrade the DNR's inventory of artillery
in this region. Equally interesting was the type of munition used in the
strike, which appears to have been a MAM-C munition rather than the
more commonly used MAM-L.
The
Bayraktar TB2 can be armed with up to four MAM-L or MAM-C munitions.
These highly maneuverable smart munitions can hit their targets with
pinpoint accuracy at ranges as far as 15+ kilometres away, well outside
the range of the types of air defence systems operated by separatist
forces in the region. In order to hit the D-30 howitzer the TB2 did not
even have enter separatist-controlled airspace, with the 15+km range of
the MAM munition being larger than the distance of the howitzer's from
the Ukrainian frontline (13km).
The ill-fated D-30 howitzer shortly after being hit by a MAM-C munition. |
Yet
one would be mistaken for thinking the separatist's air defence
consists solely of short-range SAM systems, with a number of Russian
electronic warfare (EW) systems currently deployed to separatist-held
Eastern Ukraine. However, given the lack of success of even Russia's
most modern EW systems in combatting the Bayraktar TB2 over
Nagorno-Karabakh while in service with the Armenian Army, there is
little reason to suggest that these would present a grave danger to the
operations of the TB2.
In
case of a future escalation or the continued use of the TB2 by Ukraine
to strike separatist targets, the Russian Army could deploy its own SAM
systems to the region. In 2014 Russia already deployed Pantsir-S1s,
Tor-M1s and Buk-M1s to Eastern Ukraine. The latter system was
responsible for downing several Ukrainian Air Force planes including
Su-25 close air support aircraft. The deployment of Russian air defence
systems to Eastern Ukraine gained notoriety after a Russian Buk-M1 shot
down Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, resulting in the death of the 298
passengers and crew onboard.
The drone strike took place some 13 kilometres inside DNR-held territory. [3] |
Ukraine
currently operates a fleet of twelve Bayraktar TB2s equally divided
between its air force and naval aviation. [4] In September 2021 it was
revealed that the country plans on acquiring an additional 24 TB2s over
the coming years, for a total of 54 systems ultimately to be acquired.
[5] In addition to purchasing the drones themselves, Ukraine also struck
a deal with Baykar for the establishment of training and maintenance
centers in Ukraine. [6] The acquisition of the TB2 arguably is the most
significant addition to Ukraine's Armed Forces since their founding in
1991, and is certain to provide the country with economical and
realistic wartime capabilities.
The
strike on the howitzer could be the first indication of a new norm,
paving the way for future (retaliatory) drone strikes on DNR and LPR
targets, with the Minsk agreement being enforced by Bayraktar TB2s if
need be. While some have argued that the Bayraktar TB2 has yet to face a
true peer-level threat environment, previous experience in neutralising
Tor-M2s, Buk-M2s and Pantsir-S1s among a host of other SAM and
electronic warfare systems specifically designed to counter UCAVs like
the TB2 suggests that the successes booked in Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh
could one day be repeated over Eastern Ukraine. Though an escalation of
the mostly dormant conflict in Ukraine's East is far from the only
possibility, the TB2's career in the country is certain to be a
remarkable one. Future aggression or no: the TB2 can add another notch
to its kill list.
[1] Перше застосування "Bayraktar" на Донбасі проти артилерії найманців https://youtu.be/XEY4qPO1ffU
[4] Black Sea Hunters: Bayraktar TB2s Join The Ukrainian Navy https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2021/08/black-sea-hunters-bayraktar-tb2s-in.html
[5] Ukraine to buy 24 more Turkish Bayraktar TB2 UCAVs https://www.dailysabah.com/business/defense/ukraine-to-buy-24-more-turkish-bayraktar-tb2-ucavs
[6] UAV magnate Baykar to build centers for Turkish drones in Ukraine https://www.dailysabah.com/business/defense/uav-magnate-baykar-to-build-centers-for-turkish-drones-in-ukraine